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Study predicts growth in mobile payment
Posted: 31-Oct-2001 [Source: Yankee Group press release]

[A Yankee Group study predicts mobile commerce growth.]

Boston -- By 2006, the Yankee Group estimates 50 million wireless phone users in the United States will use their devices to authorize payment for premium content and physical goods. This represents 17% of the projected total population and 26% of all wireless users.

According to the new Report from the Yankee Group, "Mobile Payments: What Are They Worth?," these 50 million mobile users will spend approximately $15 billion, purchasing premium content and authorizing the purchase of physical goods and services with their wireless devices. The $15 billion revenue figure implies that carriers can increase monthly revenues by anywhere from $0.20 to $3.00 in 2006, depending on their share of revenues (3% to 50%). We estimate that carriers will win a material share of most transactions (10% for a $0.59 ARPU lift across the base).

By 2006, mobile commerce will have started to make a dent in the payment mix (representing approximately 2-3% of all noncash, electronic transactions). The ability and willingness of carriers to enable micro-billing will represent an expansion rather than cannibalization of the transaction pie. Still, players in the existing payment industry should beware: In the long run, aggressive carriers will leverage their newly acquired experience with micro-payments, expanding their networks and their service offerings from telephony into payments.

The Report, which details the types of transactions and the parties that will benefit from mobile commerce, was published on October 18 by the Yankee Group's Mobile Commerce Strategies research and consulting practice.

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