Juniper Research forecasts that HSPA will dominate mobile broadband network deployments over the next five years, consistently accounting for about 70% of the total mobile broadband subscriber base until 2012.
Globally, nearly 1 in 3 mobile subscribers will use a mobile broadband connection by 2012. This will represent over 1Bn users, driven by demand from North America, Western Europe and to a lesser extent by the Far East and China.
However, the main gating issue that will dictate takeup for this technology will be the availability of suitable devices -- whether handsets, laptops, datacards, or other types of device such as media players. Mobile broadband will be a device-based technology.
Report author Howard Wilcox said: "HSPA's in-service status in 2007 makes it already the most advanced mobile broadband technology, with many further deployments due in the near and medium term. For the 3G service provider base, HSPA represents a software upgrade rather than a new network investment. HSPA will also benefit from technology "leap" subscribers in the developing nations, and handset churn elsewhere, with users migrating to HSPA-based broadband as the norm."
Howard Wilcox continued: "Over the last year there has been significant activity in the Mobile WiMAX market, including many trials and contract announcements by leading vendors and operators. Mobile WiMAX is now positioned to achieve a single digit percent proportion of the global mobile broadband subscriber base by 2012. This will represent a significant attainment for this new mobile platform. We believe that the WiMAX market will see substantial growth after 2012, as new networks are built out and new applications are adopted."
Juniper Research assesses the current and future status of mobile broadband based on interviews, case studies and analysis from representatives of some of the leading organisations in the growing mobile broadband industry.
Highlights from the report include:
- Global mobile subscribers are forecast to reach over 1.2Bn by 2012.
- The value of mobile broadband service revenues globally will grow to over $400bn pa by 2012.
- HSPA will account for about 70% of all broadband subscribers over the 2007 - 2012 period.
- EV-DO (Revs. A & B) will be the next most prolific technology driven by extensive penetration of the Americas and Far East.
- There are several wildcard factors could significantly increase the size of the market including the emergence of very low cost laptops, and adding broadband capability to a range of devices including portable music/MP3 players, and games consoles.