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Apple predicted to be number one in global smartphone market by 2013
Posted: 13-Jan-2009 [Source: Generator Research]

[New analysis from Generator Research shows Apple could knock Nokia from the top spot in the smartphone sales and services market by 2013.]

London -- Analysis carried out by Generator Research shows that Apple’s embryonic mobile business could knock Nokia from the top spot in the smartphone market, and transform the mobile services market.

“Our analysis is that the iPhone and App Store constitute a vertical platform for the delivery of advanced mobile services that will be developed in a similar manner to how Apple developed its digital music platform, which included the iPod and the iTunes Music Store. Outsiders are rewriting the mobile industry’s rulebook for how to deliver mobile services and the new rule #1 is that you need a fully-integrated service development platform that has a rich API which is open to third party developers on favourable commercial terms. Right now, Apple has the best platform and the best-looking forward roadmap,” says Andrew Sheehy, head of research at Generator.

Generator’s research finds that with cash reserves exceeding $25 billion, 33% gross margins and the iPhone just about to enter its fastest-growth phase, Apple has the resources, competencies and motivation to invest in the mobile sector just at the time when the economic climate is forcing many established players in the mobile industry to cut back on product development. The impact on some incumbent players could be substantial, with Nokia’s share of the smartphone market falling from 40% today to 20% by 2013.

“We think that Apple will use its financial strength and revenue velocity to try to get one or more design cycles ahead of the competition. The result could see Apple shipping as many as 77 million iPhones in calendar 2013. By that time the iPhone will include a range of different models, each addressing different market segments and the App Store will have developed to the point where third party developers have access to network assets that will allow them to write programs that can send messages and establish voice calls between different iPhones,” said Sheehy.

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