A new analysis of the global opportunity for WiMAX 802.16e forecasts that up to 12% of the global DSL installed base will be substituted by WiMAX by 2013. The Far East will lead with over one fifth of the 47m subscribers in 2013.
A region by region analysis by Juniper Research found that there is a significant opportunity now for WiMAX as a DSL substitute technology. The study explored how WiMAX is well suited to rapid deployment in the many underserved areas, not only in developing areas, but also in developed countries.
Report author Howard Wilcox said: "WiMAX will be an attractive offer in areas where there are no wired networks, and in areas where the existing DSL speed is suboptimal. WiMAX will solve the broadband access problem for users located at the fringes of DSL coverage. This is in fact the case in a number of developed nations such as UK, USA, Ireland and Scandinavia, and WiMAX network operators are deploying networks to address this market need. Additionally in developing countries - such as India - network operators are aiming to provide basic connectivity.
The vast majority of the WiMAX 802.16e trials and network contracts which are being announced almost daily will begin by providing fixed broadband. Mobile usage will develop after initial demand for fixed and portable services -- this will be an added benefit for subscribers.
Highlights from the report include:
*The annual fixed WiMAX global market size will exceed 13m subscribers by 2013
*The WiMAX device market -- comprising CPE, chipsets, minicards, and USB dongles -- will approach $6bn pa by 2013
*The top 3 regions (Far East, N. America and W. Europe) will represent over 60% of the $20bn p.a. global WiMAX service revenues by 2013
However, Howard Wilcox cautioned: "Brand identification and service differentiation are major marketing challenges facing new WiMAX operators. Many of the existing broadband providers are household names that already have widespread market presence and recognition. WiMAX operators will need to identify and promote their USPs, whilst avoiding entering the market on the basis of price."
The report provides five year regional forecasts for WiMAX 802.16e as a 'local loop' technology, providing data on subscribers, service revenues and devices as well as detailed deployment tables and case studies. Juniper Research interviewed senior executives across a wide range of vendors and operators.